BEIJING, May 8 (Reuters) – China’s export growth likely quickened in April, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, as companies rushed to stockpile components from the manufacturing powerhouse amid fears the Iran war could push input costs even higher.
Outbound shipments are expected to have grown 7.9% year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms, according to the median forecast of 22 economists, up from the 2.5% increase recorded in March. The data will be released on Saturday.
Chinese exporters have so far weathered the fallout from the Middle East conflict, buoyed by overseas buyers scrambling to secure supplies, but economists warn that the longer the war drags on and energy prices rise, the greater the risk that external demand fades away — leaving sluggish domestic consumption unable to plug the gap.
Even China, long criticised by trading partners for subsidy-backed, cut-price manufacturing, is not insulated from the hit to buyers’ purchasing power as fuel and transport costs rise.
New export orders rose to their highest level in two years, separate factory activity data for April showed last month, while sub-indices for input prices remained elevated, particularly for refined goods and petroleum, coal and chemicals.
Momentum was solid in the first quarter, with China’s GDP growth hitting 5% year-on-year, the top of the government’s full-year target range, and lessening the need for immediate stimulus.
But unemployment rates edged higher and retail sales – a gauge of consumption – continued to underperform industrial output.
Imports are expected to grow 15.2% on-year, easing from 27.8% in March but still rising despite a relatively high base a year earlier.
South Korea’s exports to China, a leading indicator of its neighbour’s purchases, jumped 63% last month led by semiconductors.
China’s trade balance is expected to come in at $83.3 billion, up from $51.13 billion in March.
U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to visit China next week for a meetingwith Chinese President Xi Jinping, a trip that could yield gains on farm trade and airplane parts but is unlikely to soften deep strategic rifts, especially over Taiwan.
(Reporting by Joe Cash; Editing by Kim Coghill)
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