LONDON (Reuters) – Strategists at Deutsche Bank have recommended an overweight in equities into 2024, as risks are now well reflected in the market and those are about to turn into opportunities.
“We anticipated weaker growth, disappointing beats in earnings and disappointing central bank communication into Q3,” Deutsche Bank strategists, led by Maximilian Uleer, head of European Equity- and Cross Asset Strategy, said in a note.
“By now, these risks seem adequately reflected in markets.”
The bank has set its 2024 forecast for the STOXX 600 at 510, for the Euro STOXX 50 at 4,850 and DAX 40 at 18,000.
Europe’s STOXX 600 was last trading at 450.8 points, implying around 13% upside from current levels.
“Markets are still priced cautiously with respect to the macro environment, leaving upside potential from positive surprises,” said Uleer, adding that the base case is for the euro zone to avoid a recession.
Deutsche Bank added it remained neutral U.S. equities versus Europe, while within Europe is underweight the Switzerland’s SMI due to its “defensive character into a bullish market.”
The German bank added it prefers to buy long-duration government bonds with high ratings over credit.
In commodities, Uleer said lower oil exports due to an escalation of the Israel and Palestine conflict pose a threat to the forecast for Brent crude to trade at $92 a barrel by year-end, from closer to $88, where it is currently.
(Reporting by Samuel Indyk; Editing by Amanda Cooper and Bernadette Baum)
